COVID-19 KINETICS BASED ON REPORTED DAILY INCIDENCE IN HIGHLY DEVASTATED GEOGRAPHICAL REGION: A UNIQUE ANALYSIS APPROACH OF EPIDEMIC

Mostafa Essam Eissa; Engy Refaat Rashed; Dalia Essam Eissa

doi:10.22270/ujpr.v7i6.870

Mostafa Essam Eissa Independent Researcher, Pharmaceutical Research Facility, Cairo, Egypt.
Engy Refaat Rashed National Centre for Radiation Research and Technology, Cairo, Egypt.
Dalia Essam Eissa Royal Oldham Hospital, Oldham, United Kingdom.

10.22270/ujpr.v7i6.870

Keywords:

Control chart, correlation coefficient, COVID-19, exponential association, morbidity, mortality

Abstract

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted the whole globe in various facets of life. Most challenges stem from the public health effect with morbidities and mortalities extensively and comprehensively recorded and reported. The present case provides a unique analysis of the database of the observed cases and deaths of the corona virus pandemic. The focus was on one of the most devastating geographical locations in the world. The dataset of the USA was extracted and arranged chronologically over 106 weeks. The kinetics of mortality and morbidity were analyzed using three-dimensional graphs and control charts. Modeling of the cumulative dataset after logarithmic transformation was executed and the model was analyzed for fitting in terms of regression and error. A strong correlation existed between the number of reported cases and deaths over the study period with noticeable signs of six overlapping waves. Logarithmic transformation (to the base ten) showed improvement in data fitting with an appreciable reduction in standard error and residual parameters. The best-fitted model was an exponential association that could be used to evaluate the severity and frequency of the epidemic in terms of cumulative daily cases and deaths. The provided examination highlights the importance of the new statistical techniques for public health assessment and confrontation of the outbreaks by practitioners and professionals for community protection by providing measurable metrics for the evaluation of the health effect of the disease in the community.